‎Poll Warns of Massive New York City Exodus if Zohran Mamdani Wins Mayoral Election

‎Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers are reportedly prepared to leave the city if socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the upcoming mayoral race. A new survey conducted by J.L. Partners revealed that about 9% of New York City’s 8.4 million residents — roughly 765,000 people — said they would “definitely” move out if Mamdani becomes the city’s 111th mayor, according to a report from the Daily Mail.

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Poll shows 765,000 New Yorkers may leave if Zohran Mamdani wins mayoral race, raising concerns over major economic and population impacts.

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‎If realized, that departure would mirror the populations of entire U.S. cities such as Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, or Seattle leaving simultaneously. Another 25% of residents, approximately 2.12 million people, stated they would “consider” leaving the city following a Mamdani victory.

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‎High-income earners also expressed intentions to relocate. The poll found that 7% of those making over $250,000 annually said they would definitely leave New York City. Pollster James Johnson noted that such a large-scale population shift could produce significant economic consequences nationwide.

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‎Older residents, Staten Islanders, and white voters were identified as the groups most likely to consider leaving. Respondents described their outlook for “Mamdani’s New York” with words such as “disaster” and “hell,” reflecting widespread concern about the potential impact of his policies.

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‎Men showed a higher likelihood of relocating than women, with 12% of men and 7% of women stating they would definitely move. Around one-quarter of both groups said they were considering leaving. The strongest inclination to move appeared among voters aged 50 to 64, where 12% were certain and 33% were contemplating relocation.

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‎By racial demographics, 13% of white residents and 11% of Asian residents indicated a definite plan to depart if Mamdani wins. Staten Island emerged as the borough most ready to relocate, with 21% saying they would leave and another 54% considering it. In contrast, 6% of Manhattan residents and 8% of Brooklyn residents said they would definitely move, with 20% and 18% in those boroughs respectively undecided.

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‎The Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee surfaced as leading destinations due to their lower income and property tax rates. Analysts noted that such migration could reshape the city’s tax base and alter economic patterns across state lines.

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‎Voter engagement is projected to be high, with an estimated 1.9 million ballots expected — exceeding the 1.5 million who participated in the 2001 mayoral election won by Michael Bloomberg. This year’s turnout could be the largest since 1969, when nearly 2.5 million voters cast ballots for John Lindsay.

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‎As of Sunday night, 735,317 early votes had been recorded. Mamdani maintained a 6.6-point lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo with three days remaining before Election Day — his narrowest margin since July. An AtlasIntel poll placed Mamdani at 40.6%, Cuomo at 34%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24.1%. The RealClearPolitics polling average continued to show Mamdani leading by 14.5 points, suggesting he remains positioned to become New York City’s next mayor.