Americans Rapidly Lose Faith in the Value of a Four-Year College Degree as Costs and Job Uncertainty Rise
Americans’ views on the value of higher education have shifted dramatically as rising tuition, heavy student loan debt, and job-market uncertainty turn college into a significant financial risk.
U.S. voters increasingly say a four-year degree isn’t worth the cost as high tuition, student debt, AI disruption, and rising unemployment reshape views.
A recent NBC News poll reported that 63% of registered voters believe a four-year degree is “not worth the cost because people often graduate without specific job skills and with a large amount of debt.” The figure represents a major shift from 47% in 2017 and 40% in 2013.
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Support for the belief that a degree is “worth the cost because people have a better chance to get a good job and earn more money over their lifetime” fell to 33%, compared to 49% in 2017 and 53% in 2013.
Americans who hold college degrees also reversed course, with only 46% now saying a degree is worth the price, compared with 63% in 2013.
Pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey alongside Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, described the scale of the shift as remarkable. Horwitt noted that attitudes have changed across all groups. He emphasized that the movement is not limited to those without degrees.
Attitudes among Republicans, independents, and Democrats all shifted negatively toward four-year degrees, with Republicans showing the largest change.
Data from the poll showed that 71% of Americans without degrees believe college is not worth the cost, compared with 26% who see value in it. This same group had split more evenly in 2013.
Separate national data continues to show that college graduates earn more over their lifetimes and face lower unemployment rates than people without degrees.
Recent graduates, however, are encountering a tougher job market. Their unemployment rate has climbed since 2022—the year OpenAI’s ChatGPT launched—and now sits above the overall unemployment rate.
An analysis by Goldman Sachs found that labor-market advantages traditionally held by recent graduates have weakened, reaching historic lows.
As evidence grows that artificial intelligence is reducing entry-level job opportunities, more young Americans are exploring vocational programs and skilled trades.
Student loan balances remain a major factor shaping public sentiment, as borrowers face long-term repayment burdens. Tuition costs have doubled at public colleges and risen 75% at private institutions since 1995.
Preston Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute told NBC News that the long-standing assumption that degrees reliably pay off has eroded. Cooper said students are increasingly cautious about taking on the financial risks of two- or four-year programs and are looking for faster pathways into the workforce.
Confidence in higher education has continued to fall. A Gallup Poll from September found that only 35% of respondents view college as “very important,” compared with 51% in 2019 and 75% in 2010.
Additional pressure comes from the rising student-debt burden. A Pew Research survey last year found that only 22% believe a four-year degree is worth the cost when loans are required. Another 47% said it is worth it only without loans, and 29% said the cost is not worth it in any scenario.
NBC’s poll reflects even more negative views than a survey released earlier this year by Indeed, which found that one-third of graduates felt their degree was a “waste of money.” The survey also recorded higher regret among younger Americans, with 51% of Gen Z graduates reporting remorse, compared with 41% of millennials and 20% of baby boomers.
Horwitt told NBC News that colleges and universities have weakened their connection with many Americans because of affordability concerns, creating a perception that higher education is no longer accessible.
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