Trump Warns of Possible Iranian Sleeper Cells in the U.S. as War Escalates
Security analysts are assessing whether Iran might retaliate against its adversaries by activating covert operatives living quietly in foreign countries, including the United States.
Rising tensions with Iran prompt debate among security experts over sleeper cells, lone-wolf attacks, and how U.S. intelligence is monitoring potential threats.
The issue gained renewed attention after President Donald Trump addressed the subject during remarks to journalists this week. Speaking near Air Force One, Trump said U.S. authorities are aware of many individuals connected to potential sleeper networks and are monitoring them.
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In popular culture, sleeper cells are often depicted as spies who blend into ordinary life for years before carrying out orders. Lone-wolf attackers—individuals acting without direct coordination from larger groups—are another scenario frequently discussed in counterterrorism conversations.
For defense professionals, the possibility of such threats has long been part of strategic planning. People familiar with the situation suggested that Iran, under pressure from recent military losses, could attempt to retaliate against the United States, Israel, or allied nations.
According to casualty figures reported by Al Jazeera, more than 1,400 Iranians have been killed during the conflict. U.S. officials say operations have struck ballistic missile systems, naval assets including submarines, and various command centers. Trump stated that there is “practically nothing left” to target.
A military inquiry also revealed that inaccurate targeting information caused a Tomahawk missile to strike a girls’ elementary school rather than a nearby military base.
At the time of reporting, 26 deaths had been recorded among U.S. and Israeli forces, according to Al Jazeera. Trump has said the Iranian government attempted to assassinate him twice, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth noted that Iran has long targeted senior American officials.
Analysts say the two nations have engaged in mutual targeting for years, though each side often misunderstands the other.
Former commerce secretary Wilbur Ross told Fortune that Iran may struggle to reemerge as a major global threat. Still, factions within the country could attempt isolated acts abroad by activating sleeper agents in various nations.
Experts Question the Sleeper Cell Narrative
Not all specialists believe sleeper networks represent the primary danger.
Reuel Marc Gerecht, who once handled Iranian operations at the Central Intelligence Agency, said the idea might be outdated. He suggested that if such covert groups existed, they likely would have been deployed earlier.
Instead, he said Iran might rely on criminal intermediaries. A 2022 attempt to kill Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad involved two Russian criminals in Brooklyn, illustrating that approach.
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official, expressed a similar view. He explained that Iranian operations in the United States often involve tapping into existing criminal organizations rather than deploying deep-cover agents.
Monitoring Possible Threats
Reports surfaced this week that the Federal Bureau of Investigation circulated a memo to California police departments referencing unverified intelligence about potential drone attacks on the West Coast.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded publicly on X, stating that the information had not been confirmed and that no threat to the U.S. homeland had been identified.
Administration officials said they continue evaluating intelligence reports and remain ready to respond to any credible danger.
Rubin said he is particularly concerned about individuals being pressured through blackmail or coercion to assist foreign powers with logistical support.
Gerecht, however, warned that lone-wolf attackers may pose the greatest risk because their independence makes them harder for authorities to detect. He added that individuals already considered potential threats are likely being monitored.
Keeping Pressure on Iran
From a military perspective, Ross suggested the U.S. campaign is progressing effectively. Michael Allen, who previously served on the White House National Security Council, shared that assessment.
Allen explained that U.S. strategy focuses on maintaining intense pressure on Iran’s leadership so the government concentrates on survival rather than organizing external attacks.
While he acknowledged that threats can never be completely eliminated, he said the objective is to keep them contained.
Recent reports indicate that U.S. strikes have expanded beyond military infrastructure to include police stations. At the same time, Gerecht described Iran as experiencing a significant loss of skilled professionals, calling it a “brain drain.”
Without experienced personnel, he suggested, Iran may find it harder to carry out complex operations.
Iran’s Strategic Approach
Experts believe Iranian leaders understand they cannot defeat the United States outright. Instead, they may attempt to raise the cost of conflict for Washington and its allies.
Allen said attacks that inflict casualties could be intended to pressure the U.S. into reconsidering whether continuing the war is worth the expense.
Some reports indicate that Iranian actions against neighboring states have strained relationships in the region. According to analysts, this development may indirectly help the United States maintain a unified coalition.
Gerecht emphasized that the Iranian government has historically sought retaliation against its opponents, a motivation that continues today.
Understanding Iran’s Complexity
Foreign intelligence agencies often struggle to operate inside Iran because of its cultural and linguistic diversity.
The country has five official institutional languages and more than 60 dialects across three language families.
Population dynamics add another layer of difficulty. In 2022, Iranian authorities registered approximately 2.6 million undocumented Afghan residents during a nationwide count.
Rubin said Israeli intelligence historically built deep understanding of Middle Eastern societies through immigrants who spoke local dialects and knew communities at a neighborhood level.
However, he argued that over time Israel’s experience dealing largely with Palestinian issues may have influenced how it interprets Iranian society.
Rubin noted that neither the Middle East nor its communities should be viewed as uniform, and treating them as such can create analytical blind spots.
