Donald Trump Immigration Policies Could Remove 2.4 Million Workers From U.S. Workforce
Policies tied to Donald Trump are expected to remove roughly 2.4 million people from the labor pool, with the administration placing significant confidence in artificial intelligence to compensate for the shortage.
Immigration restrictions linked to Donald Trump may reduce the U.S. workforce by millions, while artificial intelligence is projected to support productivity and economic growth.
The working-age population in the United States is approaching a steep decline, a trend that has intensified over the past year partly because of stricter immigration rules implemented by the administration.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Employment participation among American adults was already projected to fall over the coming decade as the population ages. However, lower birth rates combined with tighter immigration enforcement from the White House are expected to deepen the labor shortfall, creating a gap exceeding two million workers in the future labor market.
According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, released midweek, U.S. population growth is predicted to average only 0.3% annually during the next decade. This represents half of the growth level previously estimated and results in a downward adjustment of 2.4 million working-age individuals by 2035. While this smaller workforce could weaken productivity long term, the administration believes emerging technologies may soften the impact.
The report suggested that increasing corporate adoption of AI could help sustain productivity levels throughout the decade. By 2036, the U.S. economy’s output is expected to be 1% higher than it would be without AI, potentially generating hundreds of billions of dollars in additional economic value.
AI was described in the report as a balancing factor as workforce expansion slows. The analysis also highlighted that AI-related spending already makes up a substantial portion of private-sector investment. Business investment is projected to rise 3.9% this year, largely driven by data center construction, advanced computing hardware purchases, and intellectual property needed for widespread AI deployment. Major technology companies and hyperscale operators have already pledged approximately $650 billion toward AI infrastructure development this year. According to the CBO, this spending surge could help preserve productivity despite fewer available workers.
The administration has framed AI as a potential driver of economic expansion. Last month, the Council of Economic Advisors reported that AI-focused investments accounted for 1.3% of GDP growth in the previous year, comparing the impact to railroad expansion during the Industrial Revolution.
Still, AI cannot fully replace human economic contributions. AI systems do not pay taxes, and a reduced population means fewer taxpayers overall. The CBO projects that lower net immigration caused by current policies will result in 5.3 million fewer residents in the U.S. within ten years. Declining tax revenue is expected to strain federal finances, with immigration policy changes during Trump’s first year back in office projected to add roughly $500 billion to the federal deficit by 2035.
Long-term labor shortages may become increasingly visible. A recent report from the Brookings Institution noted that most labor force growth in recent years has come from immigration. Reduced entry levels beginning in 2026 could lead to negative job creation and slower economic expansion. Meanwhile, an October analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy suggested that reduced legal and illegal immigration could result in as many as 15.7 million fewer workers by 2035. The same research indicated annual economic growth could decline by nearly one-third because of workforce contraction.
Many companies remain cautious about fully implementing AI, making it uncertain whether productivity gains will offset declining human labor. The CBO listed AI-driven growth as one of the biggest unknowns in its projections. With immigration reduced and the domestic workforce continuing to shrink, significant expectations are being placed on AI to rapidly deliver productivity improvements.
An upcoming workplace event scheduled for May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta will focus on how AI, people, and strategy are reshaping the future of work and organizational innovation.
