Iran May 'Go Big' After U.S. Airstrikes, Analysts Warn of Hormuz and Cyber Threats

‎Iran’s leadership is confronting what analysts describe as an existential moment following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, with President Donald Trump openly calling for regime change. Security experts say Tehran may respond in ways that significantly expand the conflict.

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‎Iran faces an existential threat after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Former NATO commander warns Tehran could escalate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

‎Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

‎While the Islamic Republic has retaliated with missiles and drones, the pace remains below the barrage seen in June 2025, when the United States joined Israel in a 12-day campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

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‎Retired Admiral James Stavridis, the former NATO supreme allied commander, outlined two potential paths in remarks to CNN. Iran could maintain its current level of missile launches and consolidate internally. Alternatively, if its leaders conclude they are cornered, they could dramatically escalate.

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‎According to Stavridis, such escalation might include shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, orchestrating attacks on American diplomats, citizens, and business interests, and activating regional proxy groups. He specifically mentioned the Houthis, who could attempt to disrupt shipping via the Suez Canal. He stressed that Tehran retains significant leverage.

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‎Energy experts caution that any move to block Hormuz — a passageway that carries roughly 20% of global oil shipments — could drive Brent crude prices toward $100 per barrel.

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‎Prior to the recent airstrikes, Iran staged military drills near the waterway to signal its capability, though there are currently no signs of an active attempt to close it. Initial U.S. strikes reportedly hit Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf, potentially limiting Tehran’s ability to restrict maritime traffic. Trump pledged to destroy Iran’s navy.

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‎Stavridis referenced teachings from ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu, who advised avoiding battle when possible but fighting fiercely when on “death ground.” He suggested Iran’s leadership may perceive itself in precisely that situation.

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‎Additional warnings have come from security analysts. Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, said the conflict represents an existential struggle for Tehran. He warned Iran could activate sleeper cells in Western nations, with groups such as Hezbollah potentially targeting Europe or North America.

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‎Similarly, Thomas Warrick of the Atlantic Council, a former counterterrorism official at the Department of Homeland Security, predicted asymmetric responses. He said Iran may focus on President Trump and other senior U.S. leaders, increasing demands on the FBI, Secret Service, and Capitol Police.

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‎Warrick also warned that Tehran could intensify cyber operations, testing American government systems and private-sector defenses. Although past Iranian efforts to interfere in U.S. elections were unsuccessful, he said renewed attempts are possible. Even with limited U.S. oil imports from the Middle East, any energy shock could still weigh heavily on the American economy.